Method
Pinnacle value robots (new)
Two further robots, Double Chance (1X, X2, 12) and Over 1.5, don't use our own goal model. Pinnacle is the sharpest bookmaker, so its price with the margin removed is taken as the true chance. Double Chance chances come from Pinnacle's 1X2 (home + draw, draw + away, home + away), never from Double Chance prices directly. A bet is made only when another bookmaker pays at least 3% more than that fair price. Prices must be fresh, and Betfair Exchange must agree with Pinnacle within 2 points. Stakes are 20% Kelly, capped at 1% of bankroll. Each bet is re-priced shortly before kickoff to measure closing line value. Every chance from 2% is logged, so 2%, 3%, 4% and 5% minimums can be compared on the Compare page.
Two independent robots
Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 full-time goals each have their own bankroll, history, settings and at most one active bet. Either can be switched on or off without affecting the other.
Data
Fixtures, odds and results come from API-Football's free plan. Team goal records come from football-data.co.uk's free results files for the current and previous season. Only leagues covered by both are scored.
Probability
Each team gets home/away attack and defence ratings from past goals, pulled toward league average when there are few games. Expected total goals feed a Poisson model, and the result is blended 30% toward the league's actual Over 1.5 / Over 2.5 rate to stay calibrated.
Value
Odds are the median 'Over' price across bookmakers. Expected value = probability × odds − 1. Only matches with positive expected value are eligible.
Stake
Fractional Kelly (25% by default) of the robot's current paper bankroll, capped at 1% per bet — so a small edge can stake well under €10 on a €1,000 bankroll, and no bet ever exceeds €10. Accepted odds start at 1.38 for Over 1.5 and 1.85 for Over 2.5.
Timing
Matches are scanned from 11:00 Athens time so picks are ready at 12:00. New picks only between 12:00 and 22:00, never after kickoff. Only games kicking off between 12:00 and 22:00 Athens time are considered; earlier or later kickoffs are skipped. Each robot holds one bet at a time; as soon as it settles, the robot looks for its next pick straight away (inside the window). Bets settle on the full-time score; postponed or cancelled matches are void.
Paper only
Everything is simulated. No real money and no bookmaker accounts are used. Settled bets cannot be edited or deleted.